Statistically, we found a significant link between the occurrence of cold winters in the long CET record and solar activity. By “significant” we mean that there was only a five per cent chance that we were being fooled by a coincidence.
The author points out in the article that there is a difference between global and regional climates. Obviously. But surely we can conclude that if the sun affects the climate of one region on earth then it does so for every region on earth.
Using methods like numerical modelling, we’re getting a better understanding of what could be driving the relationship. The likely mechanism is that changes in solar ultraviolet output alters the temperature distribution and winds in the stratosphere in winter and this, in turn, disrupts the northern-hemisphere jet stream, causing more frequent “blocking” events.
So it’s not so much that the sun directly changes the climate — making it hotter or colder on earth in a direct relationship to its output. It’s more like an indirect chain of events.
There’s evidence that cosmic rays affect the concentration of moisture in the upper atmosphere and hence potential rainfall. If the sun decreases in its output while we’re entering a period when cosmic rays are increasing then might that account for the increases in rainfall around the world? And could that additional rainfall account for the rising sea levels?
…faster than any in the last 9,000 years, increasing the probability that the sun will return to Maunder minimum conditions within about 50 years.
So what do we think the effect of a return to Maunder minimum conditions on global mean temperatures would be? The answer is very little.
…
…a very small fraction of the warming we’re due to experience as a result of human activity.
But that presupposes that there is warming due to human activity. According to this: https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-intermediate.htm the sea levels started rising in the late 1800’s (1880).
That does correlate with the start of the Industrial Revolution …but correlation is not causation. And why would the sea levels rise at the same time that the IR began? Wouldn’t it take a few years for the effects to be felt?
I’ve also used observations from the last 50 years to investigate the effect of solar activity on global temperatures – and like several other authors, I find only a very minor effect.
Really? I don’t know… I find it very hard to believe that the activity of the largest source of energy in our solar system has a “very minor effect.”
Several other authors agree with him? Does that mean that there are others who disagree? So there’s controversy on the subject? Why?